BETTING ODDS, BREAKDOWNS, AND PREDICTIONS FOR UFC 138

How nice of Dana White and all the brass over at the UFC to not only give us one, but two weeks of absolutey free MMA action. Its starts Saturday, November 5 with the historic UFC 138 and ends Saturday, November 12 with what may turn out to be the single most significant event in the history of MMA.


The UFC on Fox will most surely be a sight to behold, but theres still business to attend to before hand! UFC 138 is a historic fight in its own right because it will feature the first ever 5 round non-title main event in the promotions history. From here on out, all main events regardless of whether there is a belt on the line will be 5 rounds.

Dana and Joe Silva have put a serious card together with a lot of great matchups, despite the lack of "big name" fighters. Regardless, "The Crippler" vs. "The Philipino Wrecking Machine" is a hell of a main event.

Like I always say, "free MMA is good MMA". So sit back, grab a beer, and get ready for a killer night of fights.

**Be advised that UFC 138 will take place in Birmingham, England and because of the time difference it will not air live. It will show on tape delay later on in the evening (8pm EST) on Spike.

Up to the minute results will still be available as always on kneebarreactions.com just in case patience is not one of your virtues.

Now let's get down to business.

The usual disclaimer applies:

I am not now nor have I ever been an MMA analyst. Using these predictions for betting purposes in entirely the decision of the bettor. Kneebarreactions.com and TheGuardFighter can not be held responsible for any moneys lost. That's why they call it gambling!


(All odds were retrieved from Bodog.eu at 11:36 pm EST on 11/4/2011)

In case you're wondering, my overall prediction record is 18 -8. If you're a math whiz then you know that means I'm right more than twice as much as I'm wrong.

Anthony Perosh (+300) vs. Cyrille Diabate (-400)

Looks like the night is going to start off with one of those classic Striker vs. Grappler matchups.  Perosh is an accomplished grappler and one of the most decorated BJJ blackbelts to ever come out of Australia.  He's also one tough S.O.B as evidenced by the one sided beat down that he took at the hands of "CroCop".  You might remember Diabate from his one fight stint in Pride where he's often shown on the wrong end of a highlight video.  Diabate has good kickboxing and has proven to be developing a complete game as of late.  Despite the odds favoring Diabate so heavily, I'm going to have to go the other way on this one.  While Diabate has had success in the stand up department, I just don't think he has the power necessary to put down Perosh.  He has also had trouble with good grapplers who can tie him up and take him down.  Perosh will take some punishment, but eventually he will grab a hold of Diabate and take the fight to the ground where he can ride it out for a decision.

Bet:  It doesn't get much better than Perosh at +300.  

Prediction:  Anthony Perosh by Split Decision 

Terry Etim (-700) vs.  Eddie Faaloloto (+475)

I don't think I remember ever seeing the odds tipped so far in favor of one particular fighter.  Ii almost makes me wonder why they even made this fight in the first place if it's such a mismatch.  Terry Etim has been in the fight game for a long time despite being only 25.  This is actually his 9th fight in the UFC, while Faaloloto (who has the hardest name in existence to spell) is fighting for only the 5th time in his MMA career and is 0-2 in the organization.  This is all telling me that unless Faaloloto lands that crazy over hand right from hell that puts Etim out for good, this should be a pretty cut and dry affair.  Etim is evolving and has experience on his side.  Since I'm a from believer that experience is invaluable in the Octagon, I have to pick Etim in this one.  He's also more skilled then Faaloloto in just about every aspect.  

Bet:  I'm no sure really.  Maybe skip this one?  -700 does no one any good. 

Prediction:  Terry Etim by TKO in Rd 1

Thiago Alves (-350) vs. Papy Abedi (+275)

Remember when Thiago Alves was considered the number two welterweight in the world?  Once upon a time, Alves was thought to be the only person out there who could possibly dethrone the reigning welterweight champ.  Since losing his first ever pursuit of the title, Alves has been on a pretty serious skid losing 2 of his last 3 fights.  Have you ever noticed that when guys lose to GSP, they just can't seem to put wins together afterwards?  Abedi is making his UFC debut and is coming in with a lot of hype as being a serious welterweight prospect.  He is currently undefeated and has finished all but one of his fights.  This is one of those times where I'm going to choose the less experienced fighter over the favorite.  Alves still has serious KO power and definitely has all the skills necessary to finish this fight.  With that being said, he almost missed weight again for this fight which shows me that he may not be entirely focused.  Abedi is no joke and can end the fight at any time.  He also wants it more which makes him a very dangerous opponent. 

Bet:  Abedi at +275 should give you a pretty lucrative payday.

Prediction:  Papy Abedi by 2nd Rd TKO

Brad Picket (+105) vs. Renan Barao (-135)  

What a matchup this should turn out to be.  Renan Barao is an absolute savage in the cage.  The Nova Uniao product trains along side the likes of Jose Aldo and has been an absolute wrecking machine for the last few years.  Barao is considered by many to be a future #1 contender and a win over Picket will put him right in the mix for the 135 lbs title.  Pickett is also a beast and is sporting the home field advantage as this fight will be contested in England.  Unlike most Brits, Pickett has won the majority of his fights via submission and is well versed in grappling due to his training at ATT.  While this matchup should be an exciting close fight, I have to give the edge to Barao, but not by much.  Barao's BJJ in on another level and his standup is constantly improving.  This might easily be the fight of the night with Barao most likely edging out a decision.  But honestly, it could go either way.

Bet:  This one is so hard I'm tempted not to even make a pick.  It's gotta be   

        Barao though.

Prediction:  Renan Barao by Split Decision

Chris Leben (+210) vs. Mark Munoz (-270)

As far as free main events go, this one is high up there in quality.  Who doesn't love watching Chris Leben fight?  Win or lose, he always makes sure that you get a show.  Leben is tough as nails and is famous for being able to take an immeasurable amount of punishment while turning the fight into a brawl.   Munoz has been mentioned on the very short list of possible contenders to Anderson Silva's belt lately and has put together a good amount of wins over his last few fights.  His lone loss in over two years came at the hands of Ushin Okami but he has since been able to put together a 3 fight win streak. 

This fight is historic because it is the first ever 5 round non-title main event in UFC history.  Not that there's any chance that it goes to a decision, but that's important information to know.  Munoz has been improving and his wrestling is top notch.  He should be able to take Leben down and control him fairly easily as Leben has not shown the best take down defense in the past.  Even so, at some point Leben will create enough space to get some shots in and make this his kind of fight.  I just don't think Munoz has enough power to put Leben away and will get caught by a vintage Chris Leben haymaker at some point in the later rounds of the fight.

Bet:  You could take Munoz here and play it safe, but why would you?  Betting 

        on Chris Leben is always more fun anway

Prediction:  Chris Leben by 4th Rd TKO

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If you haven't yet made your picks for the UFC 138 Prediction contest, there's still plenty of time.  Don't wait to long though.  These fights are starting a full four hours earlier than they usually do. 

The winner gets a free copy of the newly released UFC Encyclopedia.  So spread the word and bring in some competition.  

The contest winner will be announced on the Sunday after the fight so make sure you come back and find out it you won!

Feel free to agree or disagree with my picks.  That's what the comment section is for. 

As always, don't forget to follow me on twitter @TheGuardFighter.

Thanks again to everyone for the support!

Peace!