UFC 134 PREDICTIONS

It’s here ladies and gentlemen. It’s the blog you’ve all been waiting for!
Well, let’s be serious….. You probably haven’t been waiting for this at all….. But I’m going to keep writing it anyway.

Since the inaugural post for this bad boy falls on the same weekend as one of the biggest cards the UFC has put on this year, I thought it would be only fitting that I give you my expert (not really) break down of some of the fights on the card. MMA is basically the only sport I can stomach watching and I’ve been doing so since UFC 1. This, my friends, by all accounts makes me an enthusiast. But I digress…… back to the task at hand.


I will at this time attempt to break down the last seven fights on the card. This includes the two fights that will show for free on Spike, plus the main card which will air only to those willing to pay good money for it.


(*disclaimer* – I am Brasilian [spelled with an s on purpose] by heritage and therefore am completely biased on who I will be cheering for. I will, however, attempt to break down all of these fights based solely on facts and what I know about MMA and MMA fighters)


(*disclaimer #2* - Please do not use my picks for betting, but if you do and you turn a profit…I want a cut)


Spike televised portion.


Fight 1

Dan Miller vs Rousimar Palhares

Of all the fights on this card, this is the one with the most potential for delivering the biggest one sided beat down of the night. Rousimar Palhares is a beast by all accounts and has been able to adapt his Jiu-Jitsu for MMA to the point where if he grabs a hold of any of your limbs, he may just break it off. Ask Tomasz Drwal if you think I’m wrong. Dan Miller has had a rollercoaster of a UFC career and has won some and lost some. I have to admit, I think he’s incredibly overrated (just like his brother and all the rest of the AMA guys) and is used as more of a stepping stone by Joe Silva and Dana White than a viable contender. He only seems to get thrown in with elite fighters when they need a win. He has a jiu-jitsu black belt of his own, but is no where near the level of Palhares. Look for Miller to try and keep the fight standing but not succeeding. Eventually “Toquinho”, which is Portuguese for tree stump, will drag him to the ground and rip one of his appendages off.


Fight 2

Thiago Tavares vs Spencer Fisher


This is a great matchup and looks like it should be a decent fight, at least on paper. I don’t think I’ve ever watched a Spencer Fisher fight without being thoroughly entertained and I honestly have no reason to believe why this will be any different. Thiago Tavares is yet another BJJ black belt on this card and is coming off a brutal KO at the hands of Shane Roller. This is one of the many instances on this card where I feel like the matchup was tailor made for the Brasilian to win. Styles make fights and Fisher’s falls right in to the wheel house of Tavares. Even so, I’m still picking Spencer Fisher to win this fight. Tavares tends to be a very emotional fighter and the prospect of fighting at home will be too much for him. Fisher has much more experience and will frustrate Tavares to the point where he will give the fight away. Look for this one to go the distance and for Spencer Fisher to come out on top (That’s right, I picked against the Brasilian!)

Breaking down the main card:

Let me start by saying that this card has the potential to produce some serious fireworks. With that being said, there is also the serious possibility that every single fight will be a snoozer (Griffin x Shogun not withstanding). Let's hope for option 1.



Fight 1

Luiz Cane x Stanislav Nedkov


The first fight on the main card is Luiz Cane vs Stanislav Nedkov. Nedkov is making his UFC debut and boasts an undefeated professional record of 11 x 0. Luis Cane is fighting in the UFC for the eigth time and is coming of a big knockout of Elliot Marshall (which I saw live!). Long story short, I don't see how Cane loses this one. Nedkov couldn't even finish an aging Kevin Randleman (yes he won but it was less than impressive and by split decision) and is fighting for the first time in over a year. Cane is fighting with the home field advantage and has a much greater skill set than Nedkov. He has also made it a habit of crushing CANS and getting destroyed by elite 205-ers. Since Nedkov falls into the category of the former, Cane should easily dispatch him back to Bulgaria and keep his ever emerging status as a light heavyweight gatekeeper alive.

(* I would normally pick Cane by knockout here, but you should see the size of Nedkov's head. I bet he can take a punch or two)



Fight 2


Edson Barboza x Ross Pearson


This is another one of those fights where the matchup was designed to favor the Brasilian. Unlike Tavares vs Fisher, this one will end exactly as planned. Edson Barboza is an absolute wrecking machine and is perhaps the best pure striker in the UFC today with the exception of Anderson Silva. His aggressive style and crazy leg kicks have garnered him numerous comparisons to Jose Aldo. I don’t know how accurate those comparisons are, but Barboza is definitely a monster on his feet. Ross Pearson is the British Ultimate Fighter winner and unfortunately for him, he’s being fed to the wolves on this one. With a virtually non-existent ground game, I don’t see how there’s any way Pearson can win this fight. Even if he does try to take him down, Barboza’s sprawl is good enough where he can keep the fight standing. Pearson is a good fighter with very good striking, but it’s going to take an elite ground game to beat Barboza. I don’t know when it will happen, but eventually Barboza will have to face a wrestling specialist at 155. When that happens, many questions will be answered about whether he’s the real deal or not.




Fight 3


Brendan Schaub vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira




I honestly don’t understand the hype behind Brendan Schaub. The guy’s nickname is “the Hybrid” for Pete’s sake. Does anyone else think of a Prius when they hear that? Schaub is a moderately talented fighter with tons of athletic ability who has made a career of beating aging former contenders who are on their way out anyway. His fight against Cro Cop showed me one thing, he’s not ready to fight top tier heavyweights just yet. Yes he knocked out Cro Cop, but honestly, who hasn’t these days? Also, he left that fight looking like he got mauled by a pit bull. Nogueira is a legend who needs absolutely no introduction and if you don’t know who he is, you probably shouldn’t be reading this. He hasn’t fought in 18 months and is still recovering from various surgeries but is healthier than he’s been in years. Coming into this fight everyone is expecting Schaub to knock out Nogueira easily and send him in to retirement. Noguiera, I would assume, has other plans. In the end, I see this fight lasting a lot longer than people might think. I’m expecting a vintage Minotauro performance here where he takes an amazing amount of punishment before pulling a submission out of his ass. Once the dust settles, look for Schaub to seriously regret all of the “I want to take it to the ground” jokes he made.



Fight 4 – The Co-Main Event


Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio “Shogun” Rua




“This is the co- main event of the evening!” Does anyone else expect the “Fight of the Night” here? I hate to say it, but I’m expecting this fight to disappoint me greatly. Not because it’s going to be a bad fight, but because I’m not expecting Shogun to win this rematch. Let me explain something….I’m a huge Shogun Rua fan and would like nothing more than to see him knock out Forrest Griffin. The things he used to do in Pride were amazing and he’s had an incredible career. Watching him lose the belt to Jon Jones last time around was immensely disappointing for me, but it made me realize something about Rua. He’s undersized for the light heavyweight division. He will always have trouble with guys who can use their size and weight to smother him from top position. Forrest Griffin fits that mold perfectly. The last time around people expected Forrest to lose because Shogun was coming in to the UFC on an absolute tear. Forrest surprised everyone with his well rounded game and how easily he was able to use his size to frustrate Rua. A lot of Rua supporters will point to the fact that he was injured and out of shape for that fight. I personally think that Forrest is just a bad matchup for Shogun. This should be a great fight with lots of action where ultimately Forrest uses his newly acquired BJJ black belt to once again frustrate Rua with his stifling top game. Unfortunately for the Brasilian crowd in attendance, they will be disappointed. Maybe after a second loss in a row, Shogun will decide to drop down to 185 where he can do some serious damage.




THE MAIN EVENT

Anderson Silva vs Yushin Okami


This is the fight six years in the making and the second of two rematches on
this card. The first time around Okami won by disqualification after Silva unleashed a nasty kick off of his back that knocked Okami senseless. Okami could not continue so Silva was disqualified for kicking a downed opponent. There are numerous reasons that I can point to why this DQ was ridiculous, but I won’t waste your time with them. The rule is meant to protect downed fighters from unnecessary damage and this was not the case here. Take a look at this and tell me if Okami needed any extra protection

Well, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, I can say what has been on everyone’s mind since this fight was announced. This is probably going to be a boring main event. Be prepared for yet another Anderson Silva dance video people! I sincerely hope I’m wrong about this, but I don’t think that I am. Anderson Silva is notorious for not pressing the action himself and I just don’t see Okami coming after him for fear of getting knocked out again. Okami’s been training with Chael Sonnen but that doesn’t’ seem to have helped his aggressiveness. His last fight with Nate Marquardt was one of the worst main events in recent memory and I expect that fight to be the blue print for this one. Okami didn’t want to engage and Marquardt pretty much went the duration of three rounds waiting for Okami to come at him. Expect this fight to be much of the same, but longer. Once again, I really hope I’m wrong here. I would love nothing more than to see another Anderson Silva highlight real knockout which leaves everyone in the world in awe of his skills. The Brasilian fans in attendance deserve that much and I hope they get it.

Official Prediction:

Anderson Silva dances his way to a Unanimous Decision and Dana White once again has to apologize to fans for his behavior. He then pulls Chael Sonnen from his next fight and makes Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen 2 the main event on the Fox.

Predictions for bonuses:

Fight of the Night: Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio Rua

Knockout of the Night: Edson Barboza (Ninja style head kick)

Submission of the Night: Rousimar Palhares (by dismemberment)


Well if you made it this far……..Thanks for reading!

Feel free to leave comments and let me know what you think. Enjoy the nights of fights!

Don’t forget to tune in tomorrow for my post fight reactions!!