And so we meet again.....
(All betting odds were retrieved from BODOG.EU at 1:22am EST on 10/01/11)
As usual, the standard disclaimer must apply. I am not now nor have I ever been an MMA analyst. Using these predictions for betting purposes is entirely the decision of the bettor. Kneebarreactions.com and TheGuardFighter can not be held responsible for any moneys lost.
I made seven predictions for UFC 135. I went 5 and 2. What does this mean? I'm damn good.........That's what it means........
The Main Card
Matt Wiman (-215) vs. Mac Danzing (+175)
This will be the second time that these two Ultimate Fighter alums have faced each other. The first time around, Wiman defeated Danzig by a very controversial referee stoppage due to a guillotine choke. Although the choke looked like it was super tight, Yves Lavigne was a bit premature in calling the fight as it doesn't look like Danzig ever actually tapped. Both fighters have been waiting over year to decide the outcome of that fight. Wiman was most recently seen losing yet another controversial decision to Dennis Siver (I personally thought he won that fight). Danzig was the last person to fight Joe Stevenson at lightweight before he moved down the featheweight. Oh yeah, he knocked him out.
Maybe it's the fact that I don't really like Mac Danzig, or maybe its the fact that he's incredibly inconsistent, but I don't know how anyone can pick Mac Danzig to win this fight. While I certainly believe that he's a very good all around fighter, it's clear the Matt Wiman is better than him in the areas where it counts. This is especially true for the grappling game. I see this fight going much like the first. Wiman uses his considerable wrestling advantage to slap on another fight ending submission. This time, there's no controversy, Danzig taps!
Bet: Taking Wiman at -215 won't net you a big profit. Taking the overwhelming favorite is a pretty safe bet though. Maybe look for Wiman to finish at +220.
Prediction: Matt Wiman by 3rd RD Submission
Anthony Johnson (-205) vs. Charlie Brenneman (+165)
I'm not really sure if this matchup was intended to be a step up in competition for Brenneman, or if he is meant to be used as sacrificial lamb. Fact: Anthony Johnson cuts to 170lbs although he walks around at well over 200lbs. Fact: Anthony Johnson scares the bejesus out of me. Not to say the Charlie Brenneman doesn't have a ton of heart, but he's just severely over matched here. Yes, he beat Rick Story in what turned out to be a major upset. But truth be told, I never thought Rick Story was the real deal as it is. Brenneman is going to have to pull off another gutsy performance to win this fight and I just don't know if he has it in him.
Unfortunately, I don't know if Brenneman will be able to use his wrestling in this one like he did against Story. Johnson is just to big and strong for that and has a pretty accomplished wrestling background of his own. Did I mention that Anthony "Rumble" Johnson can also disintegrate a man with one punch. Don't let the odds fool you, this fight is far more one sided than you might think.
Bet: Johnson....for the love of God....Johnson..... It's +200 on the fight not going two full rounds. That's a pretty sweet deal.
Prediction: Anthony Johnson by 1st Rd KO/TKO
Pat Barry (-200) vs. Stefan Struve (+160)
Did you know that Pat Barry's nickname is HD? It actually stands for "Hype or Die," not the customary "High Definition." One can see how that might be confusing. This is probably the most intriguing matchup of the Main Card because of the sheer physical difference between the two fighters. Pat Barry stands at 5'11" tall with a reach of 74 1/2 inches. His opponent, Stefan Struve, stands at 6'11" tall with a reach of 83 inches. In terms of size difference, that's basically the equivalent of Danny Devito fighting Arnold Schwarzenegger (minus 2 inches). I'm assuming that Devito can't punch as hard as Barry can though. Barry is a pretty accomplished kick boxer while Struve has shown flashes of skills in various areas of the MMA game.
I'm sure that most will be picking Barry in this fight, and judging by the odds I'm probably right. Call me crazy, but I still think this is going to be the upset of the night. Barry is coming off a pretty disheartening loss to Cheick Congo and I'm certain it seriously messed with his head. Struve is younger and has a load of potential. While many might point to his loss to Roy Nelson as a blue print for how to beat him, I doubt he'll let that happen again. If he comes in with the right came plan, he should be able to fairly easily use his considerable reach advantage to keep Barry at bay until he can take it to the ground.
Bet: There's good value on Struve here at +160.
Prediction: Stefan Struve by 1st Rd Submission
Dominic Cruz (-525) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+325)
This one is for all the marbles kids. The UFC Bantamweight title is once again on the line. Dominic Cruz will officially be making his fourth overall title defense, but only his second under the UFC banner. When this fight was originally announced, I was a bit skeptical as to the validity of Johnson as the true number one contender. In my eyes, the clear favorite for the next shot at the title was Brian Bowles. Naturally, Joe Silva did not agree with me. Johnson is coming off a less than impressive performance against Miguel Torres in which many felt that he had been bested. Cruz is fresh off his Unanimous Decision win over the former WEC poster boy, Urijah Faber. The Dominator looked fantastic in that fight.
The only way that "Mighty Mouse" (Johnson) can win this fight is if he can use his wrestling to take down Cruz and control him. Cruz has very underrated wrestling though and is fairly adept at taking down opponents over who he has a size advantage. Just ask Joseph Benavidez. Cruz has also defended 83% of the takedowns attempted against him. Unfortunately for Johnson, he just doesn't match up with Cruz in any way. He is giving up size and strength, and is severely outmatched in the striking department. Johnson has a ton of heart, and will make this in to a good brawl as best he can, but this isn't his fight to win. There's a bright future for Demetrious in the UFC's inevitable Flyweight division, but the bantamweight title is not in the cards.
Bet: No money to be made here. Try Cruz in a parlay. It won't add much value, but at least you'll be getting a safe bet to increase your odds.
Prediction: Dominic Cruz by Unanimous Decision
Don't forget, the party starts at 5:30 pm EST. The preliminary fights will stream live on Facebook with the Main Card being broadcast for free on the Versus Channel.
As usual, feel free to leave any comments, as long as they're praising my considerable genius.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TheGuardFighter.
I will be posting up to the minute results for all the fights, so it you can't find a place to watch them, at least you'll know who won.
Come back tomorrow for Results and Reactions!
PEACE!
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