I've literally been counting down the days. When they meet at the center of the Octagon on October 8th, I will have counted 280 days to be exact. We thought the Edgar vs. Maynard saga was coming to an end in early May, but unfortunately injuries sidelined both fighters until further notice. But it's finally here! The moment you've all been waiting for......."THE MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING!"
As usual, I'll be taking this time to offer my breakdowns and predictions for all five main event fights. Since this event will feature two bouts that will be televised live on Spike TV, I'll be doing those as well.
I just want to point out that I was 100% perfect on my predictions last week. That puts me at 9 and 2 overall since adding the betting odds a few weeks ago. If anyone decides to take my advice this week and winds up making a ton of money, please feel free to send me gifts. I accept presents in the form of cash, check, credit card, and full frontal nudity (**Female only**).
Of course, my usual disclaimer applies:
I am not now nor have I ever been an MMA analyst. Using these predictions for betting purposes is entirely the decision of the bettor. Kneebarreactions.com and TheGuardFighter can not be held responsible for any moneys lost. That's why they call it gambling!
(All betting odds were retrieved from Bodog.eu at 10:42 pm EST on 10/7/2011)
Lets get on with it........
THE UNDERCARD
Anthony Pettis (-325) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)
What do you do when you have a fighter who has all the potential in the world to be a superstar, but has trouble with experienced wrestlers? You sign him up to fight a guy who's going to stand and bang with him. That's right, I'm talking about Anthony "Showtime" Pettis. Anyone who doesn't know what I'm blabbering about, please google "The Showtime Kick," and it'll all become clear. This fight was put together because Dana White and Joe Silva know that "Showtime" could be marketing gold. His loss to Clay Guida, however, showed that he still has a lot to learn. Jeremy Stephens is the perfect matchup for Pettis to show off his flashy kickboxing and creative style. Stephens is a brawler at heart and it'll be hard for him to fight his instincts and not charge like the raging bull that he is.
Let me break this one down for you. The first round will involve a lot of circling and feeling eachother out. Once Pettis finds his timing and range, it should be a massacre from there on out. Stephens has solid boxing, but Anthony Pettis is on another level. At some point, Stephens will shoot for the takedown because he has no other options. He'll quickly find out the Pettis has great offensive Jiu-Jitsu and is especially active off of his back. This fight was tailor made for Pettis to win in ever aspect.
Bet: With Pettis being the overwhelming favorite at -325, there's not a lot of action here. Betting that the fight won't go two full rounds is +125 though. That's a pretty good deal as far as I'm concerned.
Prediction: Anthony Pettis by 2nd RD Submission (Triangle Choke)
Demian Maia (-230) vs. Jorge Santiago (+160)
This is by far the hardest fight on this card to predict. I've gone back and forth on this one for the last week. I was literally ready to flip a coin and call it a day. I was actually super surprised by the odds when I saw them because this fight is a lot more evenly matched than you might think. Both these guys are coming off losses and both have serious skills. Demian Maia is arguably the greatest BJJ practitioner in MMA today and Jorge Santiago throws every punch with bad intentions. Here's what's really bothering me about this matchup.....One year ago, I would have said Maia by Submission without even blinking an eye. In his last few fights though, we've seen a different Demian Maia. When he fought Mark Munoz, his standup looked on point and I think it caught Munoz off guard in the first round. Munoz quickly realized his mistake and adapted. Like Munoz, everyone is figuring out that Maia's standup is improving, so they're preparing for it. Unfortunately for Maia, he'll probably need more time before he develops to the point where he can rely on his hands to win fights.
I really hope I'm wrong about this one. Demian Maia is one of my all time favorite fighters and the way he's adapted his Jiu-Jitsu for MMA is masterful. I just think he's falling in love with stand up and not focusing on what got him this far. He should be developing his boxing to set up takedowns. The ground is his world and this is no time to start testing the waters in other facets of the sport. Jorge Santiago will be able to exploit Maia's over committal to the stand up game and will win this fight because of it.
Bets: Santiago at +160 is a valuable bet. Good money to be made here.
Prediction: Jorge Santiago by Split Decision
THE MAIN CARD
Before I go into this, I have to be honest. A lot of these fights are completely lopsided. 3 of the 5 fights on the main card are complete mismatches as far as I'm concerned. With that being said, there's still money to be made.
Nam Phan (-225) vs. Leonard Garcia (+175)
We'll call this the OTHER rematch on the card. The last time these two met, Leonard Garcia proved once again that the judges love him. Nam Phan clearly won that fight and the judges still awarded the W to Leonard Garcia and his never ending string of haymakers. While many would like to believe that justice will prevail, and like what happened with the "Korean Zombie," the robbery will be justified.....I beg to differ.
Phan is a very well rounded fighter, but I just don't think he's mentally cut out for the big leagues. And say what you want about Leonard Garcia, at least he's never boring to watch. I see this fight playing out much like the first. Phan will be able to use his technical boxing to outpoint Garcia for much of the fight. At some point though, he's going to get careless and try to finish for fear of getting robbed again. That's when he'll get caught with a Leonard Garcia desperation punch. The lights will then go out ladies and gentleman.
Bet: You're getting a super sweet deal on Garcia at +175.
Prediction: Leonard Garcia by 2nd RD TKO/KO
Melvin Guillard (-500) vs. Joe Lauzon (+350)
Remember those mismatches I was talking about......Yeah.....this is the big one. Melvin Guillard used to be the most unpredictable fighter in MMA. You never knew what the hell was going to happen when he stepped in to the cage. He could either destroy his opponent in seconds, or make a mental mistake that cost him the fight. Training with Greg Jackson has turned that around. Against all odds, "The Young Assassin" has matured before our very eyes. The result is a savage with immeasurable athletic ability and the kind of power that could could KO guys twice his size. Poor Joe Lauzon.
The odds speak for themselves in this one. Joe Lauzon is a well rounded fighter with tons of potential. But Melvin Guillard is on a mission to destroy everyone is his path. Good luck Joe! You're going to need it.
Bet: Taking Guillard straight up isn't worth the money. You'll get much better odds by betting on the finish (-130). Even that's not that great though.
Prediction: Melvin Guillard by 1st RD TKO
Chael Sonnen (-275) vs. Brian Stann (+215)
"The Walking Mouth" vs. "Captain America". Two suspensions and more than a year later, we finally get to see Chael Sonnen put his mouth to work again. Although he's been decidedly less vocal this time around since he's fighting former Marine and decorated war hero, Brian Stann, he's still found enough time to piss off every Brasilian in the world as well as the reigning "World's Biggest Badass" Anderson Silva. Still, I have to appreciate how well this guy can sell a fight and himself for that matter. Whether it's positive or negative, no on draws attention to themselves better than Sonnen does. Not that any of that is related to the fight, but it's worth a mention.
Let's look at the facts for this one. Chael Sonnen is one of the best pure wrestlers in the sport, and Brian Stann is only 60% effective in defending against the takedown. This percentage tends to go way down when he fights a high caliber wrestler such as Sonnen. When he fought Phil Davis, Stann was barely able to fight offensively as Davis was able to take him down and hold him there almost at will. Davis is of course a world class wrestler, but so is Sonnen. Stann has tons of power, so there's always the possibility that Sonnen gets clipped and goes down. But there's a lot of lead in that head of his, so he can absorb a lot of punishment. And since I'm fairly certain Stann hasn't developed his BJJ to the point where its a threat to Chael, this should be a pretty one sided affair.
Bet: This is another one of those situations where there's not a lot of money to be made. Maybe take these fights and plug them in to a parlay. That should improve your odds.
Prediction: Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision
Jose Aldo (-500) vs. Kenny Florian (+350) for Featherweight Title
Does anyone else feel sorry for Kenny Florian? I don't think there's ever been a fighter in Mixed Martial Arts quite like Florian. He's fought in four different weight classes, competed for a belt twice, and has been in exciting fights for the majority of his career. I'm a huge Kenny Florian fan. So much, that I was cheering for him when he fought B.J. Penn. Anyone who knows anything about me knows that B.J. is my favorite fighter, so that should demonstrate how much I like Kenny. The problem is that no matter how good Kenny Florian gets, there's always at least one guy who's better than him. Jose Aldo is no exception. Aldo may actually be the most dangerous fighter Kenny Florian has ever faced.
Although Kenny is an amazing fighter, he's just no match for Aldo. He's better in every aspect of the game. No matter how much training or planning goes in to this fight, Ken-Flo will not be able to handle the skill set that Aldo brings in to the cage. The third time will not be a charm for Kenny Florian. It's a shame, but Kenny Florian will very likely go down as the greatest Mixed Martial Artist to never win a championship in his career. How sad.
Bet: Again, not a lot of money to be made. Aldo by decision is +325 though. Interesting bet if you think Florian can hang for 5 rounds.
Prediction: Jose Aldo by Unanimous Decision
Frankie Edgar (-140) vs. Gray Maynard (+110) for Lightweight Title
You know how people say, "He looks better every time I see him" ? Well that's usually a whole bunch of bullshit. For the most part, fighters don't tend to show marked improvement from fight to fight. Generally, as skills in other areas are developing, the overall style of the fighter remains the same. Frankie Edgar is the exception. No one in Mixed Martial Arts has ever developed as rapidly as Frankie Edgar has (with the exception of Jon Jones). He literally looks better every time I see him. What's really incredible about Frankie Edgar is his ability to adapt his game plan on the fly to accommodate for intangibles. Personally, I thought Edgar won the last time these two fought. The first round not withstanding, I sincerely believe that the Champ did enough to win that fight and take home his belt without any controversy. Even so, I can't blame the judges for ruling it a draw.
The odds will tell you that this fight is pretty evenly matched, and no one can argue that fact. It could honestly go either way. Frankie Edgar does have one advantage in this fight though. The last time around, Gray Maynard hit him with everything he had and Frankie was still able to survive. That has got to be plaguing Maynard mentally. It can not feel good to know that you threw everything at someone, including the kitchen sink, and they still kept coming. Frankie Edgar will not make the same mistakes he made last time again! He will come in to this fight more prepared than he's ever been and Gray Maynard will not have an answer for his speed and footwork. The Champ will remain the Champ, and Houston, TX will be fist pumping with him by the end of the night.
Bet: Edgar at -140 is solid. Edgar taking a 5 round decision at +140 is more solid. Much better value there considering Frankie hasn't finished a fight in almost two years.
Prediction: Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision
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Anyone looking for some more good odds to bet on, there are some interesting preliminary card fights that could prove to be profitable. Check out Mike Massenzio (+130) vs. Steve Cantwell (-160). Massenzio is due for a big performance and can net you some cash if you're willing to risk it.
I'll be posting up to the minute results again, so if you find yourself unable to watch the fights, at least you'll know who won.
Feel free to leave comments if you disagree with any of my predictions. I'll probably think you're stupid, but you're welcome to leave them anyway.
As always, don't forget to follow me on twitter @TheGuardFighter.
Good Luck to anyone betting on this card!
Until next time......Stay Classy!
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