BETTING ODDS, BREAKDOWNS, AND PREDICTIONS FOR UFC 137

It's been so long I almost don't remember how to do this.  The last major MMA event was just about 3 weeks ago, and if you remember correctly, it was f****** awesome!  UFC 137 was poised to be just as exciting as it's predecessor.  Unfortunately, an injury left us minus one fight and without an epic main event.  I was really looking forward to GSP vs. Carlos Condit too.  No worries though, this card was so stacked from top to bottom that the main card is still killer.  Fortunately for us, the new main event of Nick Diaz vs. B.J. Penn should be a barn burner.  If the weigh ins are any indication of what we're in store for tomorrow, then I'm ready.  

Sorry to everyone for posting my predictions so late by the way.  I had to move for the second time in two months today.  You know how it is.

Before I go in to my predictions, I wanted to mention the UFC 137 prediction contest that I'm doing for this event.  If you still haven't made your picks, now would be a good time.  If you win you get your choice between two prizes.  If I get enough participants this time around, I plan on doing one for every major event.  So get in there and try to win some free shit!

As always, my usual disclaimer applies:


I am not now nor have I ever been an MMA analyst. Using these predictions for betting purposes is entirely the decision of the bettor. Kneebarreactions.com and TheGuardFighter can not be held responsible for any moneys lost.  That's why they call it gambling!



(All betting odds were retrieved from Bodog.eu at 11:52 pm EST on 10/28/2011)


Lets get on with it........




THE UNDERCARD




Tyson Griffin vs. Bart Palaszewski

For reasons unbeknownst to me, the betting odds were not available for this fight.  It might have something to do with Tyson Griffin not making weight and the fight being contested at a Catchweight because of it.  Sorry about that.  This should be a pretty straight forward affair though, so it's really not that big a deal anyway.  Tyson Griffin is coming off his first win at 145lbs and the end of what was a long losing streak.  One time considered a serious lightweight contender, Griffin took a bit of a nose dive career wise which culminated with him getting knocked senseless by Takanori Gomi.  Fighting at featherweight has been somewhat of a career resurgence for Griffin, and I think he stays in the win column with this fight.  Palaszewski is very well rounded and extremely talented in his own right, but he seems to have a trouble with stand out wrestlers.  Since that's exactly what Tyson is, I don't see this being a winnable fight for him.

Bet:  I can only assume that Tyson if favored in this.  I bet there's a prop bet where you can make some money betting on the decision though.  

Prediction:  Tyson Griffin by Split Decision

Donald Cerrone (-300) vs. Dennis Siver (+240)

Can you say, Fight of the Night?  Honestly, that's pretty weird if you can't.  This has all the makings for the best fight of the entire evening.  Both guys bring it and both have skills coming out of their eyeballs.  Donald Cerrone has been decimating all since moving over from the WEC and Dennis Siver probably has the best spinning back kick in the game, other than Cung Le of course.  This fight could end with in blink of an eye so pay attention people!  Cerrone has dispelled all rumors that he can't power punch with his 1st Rd KO of Charles Oliveira.  This will be the fourth time he's fought this year and I'm guessing he would be OK with fighting again before the year ends.  Some might think that Cerrone will burn himself out if he sticks to this pace, but I'm not convinced that's true.  Some guys are better when they're always active and Cerrone is one of them.  Dennis Siver has serious stand up skills but he still has a ways to go before he becomes a well rounded Mixed Martial Artist.  Cerrone has the Muy Thai to match Siver's standup and is stronger in all the areas that he is week.  I'm sure Greg Jackson will draw up a solid gameplan and let Cerrone once again showcase his ever growing bag of tricks.  

Bet:  Cerrone at -300 doesn't net you a huge profit, but it's a solid pick.  If you're looking for a strong bet to add to a parlay this is it.

Prediction:  Donald Cerrone by 2nd Round Submission (Triangle Choke)

THE MAIN CARD 

This main card has been shuffled and reshuffled more than I can count.  It turned out well in the end, but it was quite a ride. 

Hatsu Hioki (-400) vs. George Roop (+300)

I think the odds makers may have been puffing on those funny cigarettes when they set the odds for this one.  I agree that Hioki should probably be favored in this fight, but not by that much.  Hioki is a monster on the mats and is one of the few Japanese practitioners of Brasilian Jiu-Jitsu who compete in Mixed Martial Arts.  His BJJ is exceptional by all accounts, but George Roop is no slouch by any means.  As the only guy to ever KO the "Korean Zombie", Roop deserves a little more respect.  This should be a pretty good fight and has all the potential to be very exciting.  What I really like about this one is that it's pretty much a classic Striker vs. Grappler matchup.  Generally, I would pick the grappler in these instances, but this is not one of those times.   Roop is improving with every fight and Japanese fighters do not have the best record of success in the UFC.  I see Roop being able to stay away from Hioki's ground game for long enough to steal the win.  

Bet:  Taking Roop at +300 has plenty of value.  

Prediction:  George Roop by Unanimous Decision

Scott Jorgensen (-550) vs. Jeff Curran (+375)

Have I expressed yet how happy I am to have the lighter weight classes finally fight in the UFC? You know what I really love about the smaller fighters?  There's barely ever a bad fight.  In situations such as those that occurred leading up to UFC 137, it's good to know that you have some lighter weight fighters on the undercard.  You can basically pick any fight to put on the main card and you know it will be fun to watch.  Anyway, since I went on that little diatribe, I'll make this one short and sweet.  Jorgensen is too strong and Curran's guard isn't good enough to handle that kind of wrestling.  Unless he slips up and gets sloppy, Jorgensen should be able to fairly easily ground and pound his way to victory.  

Bet:  It's actually +250 if you bet on Jorgensen finishing.  That sounds promising.

Prediction:  Jorgensen by 3rd Rd TKO (Referee Stoppage)

Roy Nelson (-300) vs. Mirko Filipovich (+240)

What do you do when you have two marquee Heavyweights who are no where near title contention?   You make them fight each other of course.  Let's face it, neither of these guys is at a level where he can compete with the elite fighters in their division.  Once upon a time both of them were thought to be contenders, or in Cro Cop's case, the best in the world.  At this point in both of their careers, a win is a must and I'm counting on that being the deciding factor on whether this fight turns out to be exciting.  While I don't see this being a slug fest, I anticipate it being entertaining enough to make me want to not take my bathroom break during.  Cro Cop has not landed an old school Head Kick in a while and Roy Nelson has the hardest head known to man.  Add in the fact the Nelson's BJJ is worlds ahead of Cro Cop's, and you have yourself a winner.  I'm also convinced that Nelson is finally taking his career a bit more seriously.  He lost quite a bit of fat for this one if you didn't know.  

Bet:  Nelson at -300 is as close to a sure thing as you'll get tonight.  I could be wrong of course, but I don't think that I am.  

Prediction:  Roy Nelson by Unanimous Decision

Matt Mitrione (-160) vs. Cheick Kongo (+130)

If two years ago I had told you that in 2011 Matt Mitrione's name would be tossed around on the short list of possible title contenders, you would have Steven Seagal kicked me in the throat for fear of contracting whatever psychedelic disease I had.  But go figure, Matt Mitrione turned out to be the real deal.  Season 10 of TUF continues to be profitable for the UFC in terms of providing Heavyweight prospects.  Mitrione has had a meteoric rise so far and Kongo will be his most stern test to date.  This will be the fight that shows us whether we should really take "Meathead" seriously.  Here's the thing though, Cheick Kongo is a savage, but we never really know which Cheick Kongo will show up.  Being that he usually chokes in high profile matches, I'm predicting this one goes the way of the ex-NFL player.  Pat Barry punches hard and he was able to put Congo on his ass multiple time.  Matt Mitrione punches really really hard, so I don't see him having too hard of a time ending this one.  

Bet:  You're basically getting even money on this one, so why not put some money on the "Meathead".

Prediction:  Matt Mitrione by 3rd Round KO/TKO 

B.J. Penn (-150) vs. Nick Diaz (+120)

Excuse me, I have to go think about this one for a minute................................................................................................................You don't even know. I literally had to go to my couch and sit down because this is such a difficult decision to make.  I'm not even sure where to start.  Let me preface this prediction by saying that these are probably two of my favorite fighters of all time, and while I'm saddened to see either of them lose, I can't think of a matchup more deserving of its main event status.  Nick Diaz has been in the news repeatedly leading up to this fight because of his oddball behavior.  He has publicly stated that he wishes he had tried boxing instead of taking this fight and, as usual, has behaved strangely for someone about to fight in a main event for the largest MMA promotion in the world.  Some might think that his recent interviews mean that his heart is not really in this fight, but I interpret it differently.  B.J. Penn was Nick's first real idol, and I personally think he's saddened by the fact that he has to go out there and punch him repeatedly in the face.  If nothing else, Nick Diaz always comes to fight because it's not in his nature to do anything else.  As much as it pains me to say this because like Nick Diaz, B.J. Penn was my first MMA hero, I don't think that B.J. has enough left to deal with the pace of Nick Diaz.  It doesn't matter how much his cardio has improved, Diaz can push a pace most have never experienced before.  They are eerily similar in many aspects and neutralize each other in boxing and BJJ.  Diaz has had trouble with technical boxers like B.J. in the past and his wrestling is arguably inferior to Penn's, but he has all the tools necessary to make this a competitive bout.  I don't know what the next move will be for Nick Diaz after this fight, but I'm certain that this will turn out to be one of the most memorable fights of 2011. 

Sorry to "The Prodigy" for picking against him, but I have to be honest.  Win or lose, B.J. Penn will still remain my all time favorite fighter and a legend of the sport.

Bet:  Nick Diaz at +120 sounds damn good.  I'd take it.

Prediction:  Since they're both damn near impossible to finish

                     Nick Diaz by Split Decision

         

___________________________________________________________________________________

I personally think that this will turn out to be one of the best cards of the year.  The injuries did nothing to stop it. 

Don't forget, the prelims will be airing live on Facebook starting at 5:30 pm.  There are a lot of great fights on the undercard so make sure you tune in. 

Also, Bellator 56 will be airing live tomorrow on MTV2.  Ben Askren will defend his welterweight strap against Jay Hieron.  Should be a damn good fight.  Make sure you set your DVR

Again, if you haven't entered the UFC 137 prediction contest, I don't know what you're waiting for.  You could win your choice of a UFC 137 B.J. Penn cornerman t-shit or Nick Diaz walkout tee.  Don't be shy, make your picks!

Make sure you  tune in tomorrow if you can't watch the fights for up to the minute Quick Results for UFC 137.

Let me know what you think in the comments sections.  All comments, even the douchie ones, are appreciated.  

As always, don't forget to follow me on twitter @TheGuardFighter.

Good luck to everyone!!

Adios!