Why am I getting the impression that this fight card is being overlooked? Is it because there's no title on the line? Is it because most are already looking forward to UFC 140 and UFC 141? I'll concede that the next two events are something to look forward to, but to say that UFC 139 is in some way inferior is a horrendous. The amount of firepower contained by all the competitors who will be fighting Saturday night is astonishing. There's no telling what might happen on November 19th.
Consider this....There are six former world champions from multiple weight classes and multiple promotions fighting on this card, not to mention that at least two of these fights have serious title implications. A very good amount of the fighters who will be competing at UFC 139 are already considered legends, and a few are on their way to becoming legendary. Also, the main event brings back so many memories of Pride FC that I get goosebumps just thinking about it. What else could you possibly want from a fight card?
Well, now that I've gotten that off my chest, it's time to get down to business. Dana White and Joe Silva did a tremendous job putting together the matchups for this card. There are very few to no gimmes here. Be prepared for some wars inside The Octagon.
Update** I'm currently 21 x 10 on my predictions since I started breaking down fights based on betting odds. Not to shabby......
The usual disclaimer applies:
I am not now nor have I ever been an MMA analyst. Using these predictions for betting purposes in entirely the decision of the bettor. Kneebarreactions.com and TheGuardFighter can not be held responsible for any moneys lost. That's why they call it gambling!
(All odds were retrieved from Bodog.eu at 7:47 PM EST on 11/18/2011)
SPIKE TV PRELIMS
Michael McDonald (-500) vs. Alex Soto (+350)
This is one of the few fights on this card where there is a huge disparity in skill level between the two opponents. Rory McDonald has been long since considered the next big thing at Bantamweight and the hype is well deserved. Not for nothing, the kid is good. At only 20 years old he's already had 14 professional fights and has looked excellent in every single fight since joining the UFC. He does have one blemish on his record, but he has since avenged that loss in devastating fashion. Alex Soto is making his UFC debut and it actually coming in to this fight as a replacement for an injured Johnny Eduardo.
There's not much to breakdown here really. McDonald is very proficient on the ground (He's a BJJ Brownbelt) and has good power, especially for a Bantamweight. Soto seems like a skillful fighter but unfortunately, beating McDonald will be a tall order. He's simply outmatched.
Bet: Taking McDonald here is a no-brainer.
Prediction: Michael McDonald by Submission in Rd 1.
Ryan Bader (-450) vs. Jason Brilz (+325)
What a downturn Ryan Bader's career has taken. Going from being undefeated and one win away from a shot at the title, to losing two straight (in devastating fashion) and being relegated back to the undercard must take a serious mental toll on an combative athlete. Bader still has all the skills necessary to be considered a top contender and his relatively young age gives him ample time to improve. Even so, I have to wonder if his head is in the right place coming in to this fight. On paper, this seems like a clear cut win for Bader. Jason Brilz is incredibly tough, with a very solid wrestling background and a good chin, but Ryan Bader is the more complete fighter. Regardless, this fight will turn out to be more even than most might predict.
While Bader should have a pretty easy time controlling this fight with his wrestling, I don't see him taking many chances for fear of getting caught again. Expect a very cautious Ryan Bader coming in to this fight. The fear of a third consecutive loss will most likely cause Bader to rely mostly on his wrestling to take the fight where he is most comfortable. Brilz may be able to use his opponents caution to his advantage, but I don't foresee an upset happening. I'm not expecting any fireworks from this fight, but it should be a pretty clear cut victory for "Darth".
Bet: Bader at -450 is a safe bet. Maybe try parlaying this fight and the previous one to increase your payout.
Prediction: Ryan Bader by Unanimous Decision
THE MAIN CARD
Stephan Bonnar (+120) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (-150)
And so it begins. From here on out, all the fights are damn near at a deadlock.
Every time I watch Bonnar vs. Griffin I I'm more convinced that Stephan Bonnar should have taken home the distinction of being the Ultimate Fighter. Regardless of what your thoughts were on that fight, we can all agree on one thing....Stephan Bonnar is one tough S.O.B. Bonnar has seen a career resurgence of sorts after dropping three straight at one point and he'll be looking for his third win in as many fights at UFC 139. Kyle Kingsbury is a physical specimen at 205 and has been on roll in the UFC since dropping his promotional debut to Tom Lawlor. If nothing else, this fight could turn out to be a war, as neither man is known for being gun shy in the cage.
Bonnar has had trouble in the past with large opponents who can out muscle him and use their size to slow down the pace of the fight. His biggest advantage in any fight is his ability to turn matches in to a brawl as that's where he truly shines as a fighter. While he may in fact be able to do that with Kingbury, it probably won't be enough to get him the win. Kingsbury can take a serious amount of punishment, as evidenced by his fight with Fabio Maldonado, and has been steadily developing in to a complete fighter. Wrestling will play a key factor in this fight and I expect Kingsbury to attempt to use his size to smother Bonnar and take him out of his element. While this could very well turn out to be a glorified street fight, it's highly unlikely that Kingsbury will want to stand and trade.
Bet: Kingsbury is the favorite here so I expect him to pull through with the victory.
Prediction: Kyle Kingsbury by Split Decision
Rick Story (-145) vs. Martin Kampmann (+115)
I'm a little surprised by the odds for this fight for many reasons. While it's true that both fighters are very well rounded and more than capable of taking the win, it's evident to me that this is a horrible stylistic mathcup for Kampmann. Kampmann has had very little success against wrestlers in the past and Rick Story is about as good a wrestler as you can get in any division in the UFC. The odds makers may be undervaluing Rick Story a bit coming in to this fight because of the colossal upset he suffered at the hands of Charlie Brenneman. Don't get me wrong, Kampmann is a skilled kick boxer and has a very good ground game which makes him a dangerous opponent to anyone standing across from his in the Octagon. But as always, styles make fights, and this is not a good matchup for Kampmann.
I expect his to be a pretty clear cut affair. Rick Story will be coming in to this fight more prepared than he's ever been after his previous loss and will use his wrestling to take the win away from Kampmann.
Bet: Once again, I'm picking the favorite. Taking Rick Story at -145 makes a lot of sense here.
Prediction: Rick Story by TKO in RD 3
Brian Bowles (+215) vs. Urijah Faber (-275)
The first of the ex-champion vs. ex-champion matchups starts here. And guess what? I smell an upset!! Why is it that Brian Bowles is so undervalued in the UFC's Bantamweight division? He's a former Bantamweight Champion and probably has the heaviest hands in the entire division. I personally thought that he should have been given the title shot first over Demetrious Johnson, but obviously Dana White didn't agree. Urijah Faber needs absolutely no introduction. He's the former golden boy of the WEC and is probably one of the gutsiest fighters I've ever had the pleasure of watching. Did you know he once fought five rounds with two broken hands? That's tough.
As tough and skilled as Urijah Faber is, he's getting passed by in the ever evolving UFC Bantamweight division. While he's always fun to watch, it doesn't seem like his game has evolved much in the last few years. Four years ago, "The California Kid" was damn near unstoppable, but it seems to me that people have figured him out. Brian Bowles has all the tools necessary to beat Faber at his own game. Unfortunately for Urijah Faber, speed and athleticism won't be enough to get him the win here. Brian Bowles will prove to everyone why he should get that rematch with Dominic Cruz that he's been waiting almost two years for.
Bet: Brian Bowles at +215. Enough said.
Prediction: Brian Bowles by KO in RD 2
Cung Le (-145) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+115)
So we finally get to see if Cung Le is the real deal. The former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion has decided to take some time from his budding movie career and join the ranks of the UFC's Middleweight division. He was originally slated to face Vitor Belfort, but an injury caused him to pull out of the fight. Belfort was subsequently replaced by perennial fan favorite Wanderlei Silva. Silva is coming off a devastating 1st round knock out loss to Chris Leben and is once again teetering on the edge of retirement. As legendary as Silva's career was in Pride, he has not been able to put together a significant win streak since joining the UFC. The drop to 185 lbs has given him a bit of a charge, but he has gone 1 x 1 since becoming a Middleweight with his only win coming against Michael Bisping.
Silva is at his best when he can get inside and overwhelm his opponent with power strikes. While he's capable of outpointing someone with technical boxing, that's just not his style. He loves to give the fans a show and brawling is his bread and butter. Unfortunately, a brawling style requires an iron chin, which Silva seems to no longer have. It's no secret that the more your get KO'd, the easier it is to get put on conscious again. Cung Le, for all the uncertainty about his skills, has proven pretty convincingly the he has no shortage of power in his hands and legs. His style allows him to be effective from a distance using a variety of kicks and punches to dominate from the outside. While it is difficult to pick against Wanderlei, Cung Le is just a bad stylistic matchup for him. A suspect chin and a style that doesn't exactly produce longevity in a fighter will be the downfall of Silva in this fight.
Bet: Once again, going with the favorite is a safe bet here.
Prediction: Cung Le by KO in RD 1
Mauricio Rua (-130) vs. Dan Henderson (even)
It's about time this fight was put together. At one point, these two were on a collision course with each other in Pride. Although it's been a few years and both fighters have changed considerably, this is still on of the most intriguing matchups possible in the UFC's Light Heavyweight division. Rua is the former UFC Lightheavyweight Champion as is looking for the shortest route possible back to Jon Jones and the championship belt. Henderson is joining the UFC for the 3rd time and is technically the reigning Strikeforce Lightheavyweight Champion. He is also the only man to ever hold two titles from two separate weight classes simultaneously. As you can see, both men are legends and there's no shortage of accomplishments on either end.
Dan Henderson has incredible knockout power with his right hand. Only one person has ever survived a full power H-Bomb and lived to tell the tale. The issue here is that Henderson has grown to rely heavily on his right hand because of how effective it is. His Olympic caliber wrestling is top notch but instead of using is offensively, he favors using it defensively to keep the fight standing. Normally this would not be an issue as Henderson has proven time and time again that he can consistently land the power punch and put out his opponent. However, Hendo has had issues with dynamic strikers who can mix it up and throw him off of his rhythm. Shogun is very good at using both his legs and hands to come in from different angles and directions, which to Henderson's chagrin, is not the kind of style he does well against. It is possible of course that Henderson will be able to land the right hand and the lights will go out for Rua, but it's highly unlikely as Rua is one of the best in the business at taking his shots then covering up. While I don't see this fight going the distance, it will not end in a KO as both men are tough as nails and damn near impossible to finish. Rua will use his world class Muy Thai to stun Henderson and close in for the Submission victory.
Bet: You have to go with the favorite here. Shogun at -130 has good value.
Prediction: Mauricio Rua by Submission in RD 2
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Well I hope everyone enjoys this incredible card!
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